Racing Tips

The Favourite

The Favourite

The favourite has an important role to play in horse racing betting. A very patient and  thorough Englishman called Adrian Massey conducted a survey of 100,000 races in Great Britain. He found that of all  horse races (including jumps races) favourites won  35% , the second favourite won 20% and the third favourite won 14% or to put it another way the top three horses in the market won 69% of all races run.

Vogue Model Maudie James checks out the form

The survey also showed that if you bet $1 on every favourite going around you would lose 8% of your turn-over which is better than most punters do on a yearly basis. The bookmakers’ business model is based around these statistics because they know that in roughly 30% of cases punters will lose and they can frame their book accordingly.

Does this apply in Australia?  Well yes. However, there are variables. Handicaps have a lower percentage of favourites than weight for age or set weight races. Races run for higher prize money have a poor strike rate for favourites. The rate can also vary from course to course.  Flemington is a graveyard for the public elect particularly races down the straight and on Final Day. 

Oddly, punters will get better value for favourites than for longer priced horses in the market.  This occurs for two reasons. Bookmakers sharpen their pencils and compete for the money bet on the horses most likely to win by increasing their prices. The second is due to a concept whereby punters over value long shots and undervalue favourites. A punter will grizzle and not bet on a near certainty priced at 5/4 only to see it romp in by several lengths. On the other hand, he or she will not question the price of a 20/1 shot which on form and statistics is probably worth about 50/1. This is known as favourite long shot bias.

Not backing a favourite or worse taking it on because it is too short is not a wonderful betting strategy.  Think of it as giving a present to the bookmaker that he was n’t counting on. He will love you for it.  

Caulfield

Race 4 Exasperate (4) Plein Ciel (2) Sound (1) Think we are due (won @ 10.00) (8) First Class Dreamer (9)

Race 5 Rulership (3) Lunar Fox (1) Larimer Street (2) Hydro Star (6) Branders Rule (7)

Race 8 Mystic Journey (8) Cape of Good Hope (4) Streets of Avalon (3) Kings will Dream (2) Arcadia Queen (9)

Race 9 Adelaide Ace (3) Showmanship (4) (won @2.00) Junipal (2) Mount Tabora (7) & Ruban Bleu (6)

Theme Bet  

Our theme bet this Saturday is over familiar and possibly unwelcome behaviour Race 3 Embrace Me (1) Race 5 3.60 The Cruiser (8) Race 6 Fresh (7) Race 9 So You Swing (16).The accrued prize for getting these horses over the line in a Yankee (Parlay Formula 23 &4 bet will pay $34,271 for $5.50 outlay.   

Randwick

Race 3 Varda (5) (won@2.80) Race 7 North Pacific  (2)(won @ 2.00)Race 8  Man of Peace (8) (won@4.60)

Toby’s Titanic

Race 5 Hydro Star (6)

He lost high lightning the diference between Sandown midweek form and Saturday form drifted in the market but gave layers a 30% profit)

Compare the Pair

Gambling in the Corona Virus era-a data driven approach?  

The current pandemic has been a bonanza for bookmakers and online gambling companies. 

This is due in part to the many multiple bet options which offer poor value for money. They make horse racing one of the more expensive options for some punters who tend to focus on form and other data rather than the probability of the bet getting over the line.   

Take punter A for example. He was out of the quaddie (1 in 14,560 combinations) early when Wilmot Pass got rolled, a loss of $150 for a potential 24% share.  He added to this and other when he went for a key box trifecta (1 in 2184 combinations) in the last on Hypersonic ridden by Damien Oliver and 6 other horses ten times for $200. Further losses at Ascot and Melton led to a loss on the day of $400.00.

This amounted to 26% of his fortnightly Job keeper payment funded by a drawdown on his Visa card @19.2% percent and a 2% cash advance fee.

On the other hand, Punter B had a good day focusing primarily on win betting (saving where appropriate) albeit with a small exposure to the daily double when his five picks were beaten by the unfancied Melodean, after a last start 7th at Cranbourne but a good record at Moonee Valley. His strategy is to establish a bank at the beginning of the season wager 5% of that on selected races and by the time Mahamedeis (1 of 10 runners) won the seventh race he was $275 in front, having followed Toby’s selections for a win. Not a bad start.   

The dilemma for punters? The quaddie paid $44,000 but it would n’t have paid this had Wilmot Pass won the first leg.  

Flemington

Race 1 South Pacific (4) Exemplar (4) Won @ 7.00 Double Your Tee (3) & Blandford Lad (8)

Race 2 Yes Baby Yes (6) Diesel ‘n’ Dust (1) Galactic Fury (2) The Pres (5) & Shamzou (7)

Race 4 Navisha (5) Heavenly Emperor (4) Five Kingdom (8) Winning Partner (7) & Peso (1)

Race 5  Laburnam (6) Mantastic (2) Coming Around (9) (won@3.00)

Theme Bet 

Our Theme Bet this weekend is war and espionage Race 1 South Pacific (4) Race 2 Fatigues (3) won @ 4.80 Race 5 Man from Uncle (8)

Get these over the line in a Super Yankee or Parlay Formula 2345 and gasp in astonishment as you pick up a dividend of $131,953 for a $13 bet. 

Sydney

Race 1 Montefillia (9) won @ 5.00 Race 5 Rezealient Melody Bell (4)  Race 9 Valdostana (9)

Toby’s Titanic (lay of the day)

Flemington Race 4 Tavidance (10)

Ouch! he won so we had to cough up $30.00

Birthday

Birthday

It is the horse’s birthday on Saturday, but you will be getting the presents with some stand out selections at the Valley of Excitement. Moonee Valley

Horse's Birthday and a big t hank you on behalf ofpunters everywhere for your efforts on our behalf u
Horse’s Birthday and a big thank you on behalf of punters everywhere for your efforts

has a slightly better record for favourites and runners in the market. It is second best course for punters of the metropolitan cases after Caulfield. Therefore, you are more likely to find a winner tomorrow, than say, the final day of the Spring Carnival.

It’s a shame we won’t be able to celebrate any fall in numbers in COVID 19 new cases. The last time I looked, however, there was nothing to stop anyone buying a lovely bottle of champagne and some oysters to alleviate some of the pain.

Moonee Valley 

Race 1 Exasperate (4) Victoria Star (6) Al Galayel (2) (won 3.50) Vassilator (1) & Prince Ziggy (5) (Quinella 12.10)

Race 2 Hard Landing (1) (won 4.60)Theresabearinthere (4) Diesel ‘n’ Dust (8) Jabaldi Ridge (3) (Quinella 9.80)

Race 4 Brooklyn Hustle (won @ 2.25) (4) Fight (2) A Good Yarn (1) Propelle (7) Lucifers Reward

Race 7 Bedford (5) Mirimar (4) Mahamadeis (1) (won@ 4.60) Polly Grey (7) Tavirun (8) 

Theme Bet 

Our Theme Bet this weekend is vehicles and propulsion thereof:

Race 2 Tanker (2) Race 3 Clean Machine (5) Race 4 Propelle (7) Race 7 Bedford (5) Race 8 Battle Torque (4)

Get these over the line in a Super Yankee or Parlay Formula 2345 and enjoy a dividend of $8,169 which should be enough to get you a second hand 2010 Honda Civic.

Sydney

Race 6 Kiss the Bride (2) (won @3.60) Race 7 Sangria (7) Race 8 Le Lude (placed @2.30) (7) Race 9 Off Shaw  (6) (won @ 4.70)

Toby’s Titanic:

Race 1 Moonee Valley Victoria Star  (6) (for the second week in a row Toby was able to put the Moz on one of the shorter  price favourites of the day.  Started in the black after being odds on durng   the morning profit of 60%-100% profit )