Racing Tips

Ignore Youth at Your Peril

MELBOURNE, AUSTRALIA – OCTOBER 09: Damien Oliver riding Anamoe defeats Luke Currie riding Captivant in Race 8, the Neds Caulfield Guineas, winning during Melbourne Racing at Caulfield Racecourse on October 09, 2021 in Melbourne, Australia. (Photo by Vince Caligiuri/Getty Images)

Ignore Youth at Your Peril

Greg Chappell was Captain of the Australian Test Cricket team, an outstanding batsman and Australian Selector. His words are ringing in my ears this week.

With small question marks over the form of Zaaki and Verry Elleegant on Saturday my thoughts are with the in form three year- olds who slugged it out in the Caulfield Guineas a couple of weeks ago, Captivant and Amamore. Three year olds don’t often win the Cox Plate and there been only three in the past thirty years, Octagonal, So You  Think and Shamus Award. The first two are household names so it takes a very special horse to win even with the postage stamp weight of 49.5 kgs.

Like Octagonal, Anamore and Captivant both ran well in the Golden Slipper as two year olds and both seem to have transitioned well into middle distance three year olds. Peter Snowden, Captivant’s trainer was stable foreman for the Hawkes team in the Octagonal days so he must know a thing or two about middle distance three year olds at weight for age.

Moonee Valley

Friday Night

Race 4 So Si Bon (1) Wicklow Town (8) Regards Maree (6) & Never Again (4)

Cox Plate Day

Race 5 What a Fox (5) Stern Impulse (4) Fortunate Kiss (3) & The Amazonian (9)

Cox Plate Anamoe (9) Captivant (10) Verry Ellegant (6) & Probabeel (7)

Sydney

Race 5 Star Spangled Rodeo (7) Race 6 French Bonnet (13) Race 9 Nudge (2) & Race 10 Gravina (9)

Very Large Mammals Special (Moonee Valley)  

Race 6 Rhinoceros (10) Elephant (5) & Buffalo River (Bundle Box Quinella & Trifecta)

Theme Bet

Our theme bet this week is the United States of America

Race 1 Praire Flower (10) Race 3 New York Baby (2) Race 6 Buffalo River (4) & Race 8 Miami Bound. If all these horses get over the line for you on Saturday in a Yankee (Parlay 23 & 4 Bet) you’ll be entitled to a rather disappointing dividend of $2,124.

You may scrape in a cattle class airfare to the USA. Don’t even think about going  though because you will probably get COVID and you are  not allowed to anyway.

Lay of the day   

Race 9 Zaaki

Form reversals do happen but not a great idea to bet on them and he was plain last start and drifting. There are better options

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Favourite Out

Favourite Out

Mares  Verry Elleegant and Let’s Elope won the Turnbull Stakes before going on to win the Caulfield Cup. So, on face value all looks good for Incentivise until we start looking at his price, weight and barrier draw (20) compared to his opponents in the Big Handicap. Last year Verry Elleegant got weight from most of her main  rivals including a massive 3.5 kgs   from the runner up. Let’s Elope won Cup  with 48.5 kg and she was regarded as a champion.

At 55.5 kgs the favourite is giving 4 kg’s to Non-Conformist, a horse who has beaten Zaaki and ran weight for age star Probabeel to a nose at his last start. Runner up in the Australian Oakes and winner of the Queensland Oakes Duais gets 4 kg and a much better barrier draw. Both horses are paying double figure odds and more for the place then Incentivise is for the win.

Incentivise is a great horse with an excellent trainer and an in form jockey but he has  too much weight and a problematic barrier draw on a course where this matters.   He may win but his right price is probably around 4.00 and if you continue to back horses which are poor value you will end up under water big time.

Caulfield

Race 6 Begood to Your Mother (7) Buffalo River (8) King Magnus (10) Zoutori (1)

Race 9  Non Conformist (16) Delphi (10) Dualis (17) Incentivise (2)

Race 10 Curran (10) Enthaar (11) General Beau (8) & Oxley Road  

Brett Prebble Special

Race 4 Kapalau Sunset (10) Race 5 El Patroness (13) Race 7 Kahma Lass (1) Race 8 Lashes (12) Race 9 Incentivise (2) Race 10 Free of Debt (2)

 Randwick

Race 2 High Supremacy (10) Race 7 Wild Ruler (7) Race 9 High Emocean (14)

 Theme Bet

Our theme for this week is Happy/Sad/Obsessed Race 2 Stern Impulse (3) Race 3 Cheerful Legend (6)  Race 4 Stalking (3) Race 8 Paul’s Regret (5)  You’ll be happy if these four 4 horses get over the line in a Yankee Parlay Formula 23 &4 Bet an win a possible $13,833, sad that you have nothing to spend it on and obsessed with idea of coming out of lock down early.

Toby’s Titanic lay of the Day

It was a fill up day last week with Zaaki’s defeat returning $100 profit on a $30 liability.

We’ll continue with our strategy of laying the top two favourites on the feature days. It worked a treat on Wednesday.

Additionally, Betfair are offering you the opportunity to lay the multiples on quinella’s and exactas on Saturday. Lay the top four combinations excluding “any other other result” and find out why bookies adore  punters who focus on the exotics.

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Excuse the Barry Crocker

Verry Elleegant (NZ) ridden by Mark Zahra wins the Stella Artois Caulfield Cup at Caulfield Racecourse on October 17, 2020 in Caulfield, Australia. (George Salpigtidis/Racing Photos via Getty Images)

Excuse the Barry Crocker

On face value Verry Elleegant ran a little below her best in the Turnbull Stakes a race that she won  easily last year. It is not unlike her to put in an ordinary run in most of her campaigns. In this race she was disadvantaged at the weights and she has hardly ever won when been asked to race on the pace.

So her odds have blown out a little bit but I would n’t be writing the great mare just yet in the Cox Plate.

It would be a brave man to tip against Zaki but he is not unbeatable. Remember Russian Camelot who started 1.45  in this race in 2020  only to be tipped out by Arcadia Queen, so we are making him the lay of the day.

Caulfield

Race 2 So Si  Bon (1) Buffalo River (2) Justcanta (4) Riddle Me that (5)

Race 5  Dosh (8) Savotoxi (1) Shaquero (6) & Bella Nipotina (5)

Race 9 So you Assume (12) Elephant (4) Sierra Sue (3) and Luna Fox (5)

Theme Bet  

Our theme bet for this week is water:

Race 2 Buffalo River (2) Race 3 Ocean Beyond (9) Race 8 Riverplate (15) Race 9 Harbour Views (7).

If these four (4) horses get over the line on Saturday and you have taken a Yankee (TAB Formula 23 &4) bet you will receive a dividend of $22, 831.60.

This will enable you to buy a very small yacht or motorboat but don’t even think about using it to travel interstate as that would breach COVID restrictions.

Randwick

Race 4 Brigantine (4) Race 7 Vangelic (14) Race 9 Rocha Clock (2)

Toby’s Titanic Lay of the Day

Race 6 Zakki (2)  {either Probabeel  (5) or Homesman for the place would be the better option

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