Author: glamourtips

Gambling in the Corona Virus era-a data driven approach?  

The current pandemic has been a bonanza for bookmakers and online gambling companies. 

This is due in part to the many multiple bet options which offer poor value for money. They make horse racing one of the more expensive options for some punters who tend to focus on form and other data rather than the probability of the bet getting over the line.   

Take punter A for example. He was out of the quaddie (1 in 14,560 combinations) early when Wilmot Pass got rolled, a loss of $150 for a potential 24% share.  He added to this and other when he went for a key box trifecta (1 in 2184 combinations) in the last on Hypersonic ridden by Damien Oliver and 6 other horses ten times for $200. Further losses at Ascot and Melton led to a loss on the day of $400.00.

This amounted to 26% of his fortnightly Job keeper payment funded by a drawdown on his Visa card @19.2% percent and a 2% cash advance fee.

On the other hand, Punter B had a good day focusing primarily on win betting (saving where appropriate) albeit with a small exposure to the daily double when his five picks were beaten by the unfancied Melodean, after a last start 7^th at Cranbourne but a good record at Moonee Valley. His strategy is to establish a bank at the beginning of the season wager 5% of that on selected races and by the time Mahamedeis (1 of 10 runners) won the seventh race he was $275 in front, having followed Toby’s selections for a win. Not a bad start.   

The dilemma for punters? The quaddie paid $44,000 but it would n’t have paid this had Wilmot Pass won the first leg.  

Flemington

Race 1 South Pacific (4) Exemplar (4) Won @ 7.00 Double Your Tee (3) & Blandford Lad (8)

Race 2 Yes Baby Yes (6) Diesel ‘n’ Dust (1) Galactic Fury (2) The Pres (5) & Shamzou (7)

Race 4 Navisha (5) Heavenly Emperor (4) Five Kingdom (8) Winning Partner (7) & Peso (1)

Race 5  Laburnam (6) Mantastic (2) Coming Around (9) (won@3.00)

Theme Bet 

Our Theme Bet this weekend is war and espionage Race 1 South Pacific (4) Race 2 Fatigues (3) won @ 4.80 Race 5 Man from Uncle (8)

Get these over the line in a Super Yankee or Parlay Formula 2345 and gasp in astonishment as you pick up a dividend of $131,953 for a $13 bet. 

Sydney

Race 1 Montefillia (9) won @ 5.00 Race 5 Rezealient Melody Bell (4)  Race 9 Valdostana (9)

Toby’s Titanic (lay of the day)

Flemington Race 4 Tavidance (10)

Ouch! he won so we had to cough up $30.00

Birthday

It is the horse’s birthday on Saturday, but you will be getting the presents with some stand out selections at the Valley of Excitement. Moonee Valley

has a slightly better record for favourites and runners in the market. It is second best course for punters of the metropolitan cases after Caulfield. Therefore, you are more likely to find a winner tomorrow, than say, the final day of the Spring Carnival.

It’s a shame we won’t be able to celebrate any fall in numbers in COVID 19 new cases. The last time I looked, however, there was nothing to stop anyone buying a lovely bottle of champagne and some oysters to alleviate some of the pain.

Moonee Valley 

Race 1 Exasperate (4) Victoria Star (6) Al Galayel (2) (won 3.50) Vassilator (1) & Prince Ziggy (5) (Quinella 12.10)

Race 2 Hard Landing (1) (won 4.60)Theresabearinthere (4) Diesel ‘n’ Dust (8) Jabaldi Ridge (3) (Quinella 9.80)

Race 4 Brooklyn Hustle (won @ 2.25) (4) Fight (2) A Good Yarn (1) Propelle (7) Lucifers Reward

Race 7 Bedford (5) Mirimar (4) Mahamadeis (1) (won@ 4.60) Polly Grey (7) Tavirun (8) 

Theme Bet 

Our Theme Bet this weekend is vehicles and propulsion thereof:

Race 2 Tanker (2) Race 3 Clean Machine (5) Race 4 Propelle (7) Race 7 Bedford (5) Race 8 Battle Torque (4)

Get these over the line in a Super Yankee or Parlay Formula 2345 and enjoy a dividend of $8,169 which should be enough to get you a second hand 2010 Honda Civic.

Sydney

Race 6 Kiss the Bride (2) (won @3.60) Race 7 Sangria (7) Race 8 Le Lude (placed @2.30) (7) Race 9 Off Shaw  (6) (won @ 4.70)

Toby’s Titanic:

Race 1 Moonee Valley Victoria Star  (6) (for the second week in a row Toby was able to put the Moz on one of the shorter  price favourites of the day.  Started in the black after being odds on durng   the morning profit of 60%-100% profit )

Ho Hum, The Godolphin trained and hard to pronounce Alcyone won the two year old old Super Vobis Handicap on Saturday. However my focus was on the second place goer, the well named Johnny Get Angry trained by North Melbourne, Dual Premiership Coach Dennis Pagan.

Who could forget that amazing song of the sixties by the incomparable Joanie Sommers about a girl’s frustration when her boyfriend stands meekly by when Freddie cuts in constantly every time they are dancing.

It could be argued that the lyrics are a little outdated and politically incorrect {“I want a brave man, I want a cave man…..”}. However, in my view the song ranks as one of the greats of the twentieth century.right up there with Lesley Gore’s “It’s my Party and I’ll cry if I want to.”

The fact that the horse is trained by Dennis Pagan and was placed at over 100-1 at its previous start adds to the total package. Dennis trained a winner on Wednesday with Frankie Two Angels so I am sensing some connection to Frankie Vallie. Winners win. Go Johnny!!

Selections for Caulfield

Race 1 Tavidance (4) Heavenly Emperor (1) Battle Torque (2)  (placed @2.30) Denero (9) No Say In It (3)

Race 2 Zesty Belle (8) Fatigues (3) Galactic Fury (1) Sensationalism (9) Write the Score (10)

Race 7 Streets of Avalon (2) Great Again (5) Jungle Edge (1) Viridine (4) (won  @2.60 ) Samson (8))

Race 9 Mystery Shot (1) (won@2.70)  Wicklow Town (3) Savy Lad (6) Splendour on the Grass (2) Paul’s Regret (5)

Theme Bet

Our theme bet for Saturday is Water bodies and accessories thereof Race 2 Flinders River (2) (won@5.40) Race 3 Causeway Girl (4) Race 6 Kings Brook (8) Race 9  Lakes Folly (9).

If you get all of these horses over the line in a Yankee Parlay Formula 23 & 4 Bet, you will get a handy return of $14, 374 which should be enough for a lovely overseas holiday or intrastate if the COVID situation doesn’t improve.

Toby’s Titanic

Our Lay of the Day is Race 4 Persan (1) ( a few worrying moments but eventually the weight took its toll and he went down as  as favourite which meant we maid a profit of 30% on the betfair price of 4.50)