Author: glamourtips

The Quinella Exacta Dilemma

Punters like exotic betting because they offer big returns for small outlays. 

The Verry Elegant/Star of the Seas quinella (1^st & 2^nd in any order) in the Winx Stakes paid $119 for just one dollar. The same two horses in the exacta (1^st and 2^nd in correct order) paid $192.

In the Winx Stakes, there were 120 combinations for a quinella bet and 240 for an exacta in a field of 16.  The cost of a quinella is half the cost of a two-box exacta.  So you would expect that the exacta dividend would be double the quinella dividend.  

Oddly, it doesn’t for two reasons. The first is that the calculation of the odds is different for each bet type. Secondly, the size of the pool can distort the amount of the dividend particularly if one of the favourites win. You are betting on the dividend as well as the outcome of the horse race.  

In the Winx Stakes a punter who spent two dollars on a quinella would have got $238 or for the same money  he could have purchased a boxed exacta (effectively the same bet) and got $192  {or 20% less } when Verry Elegant and Star of the Seas got over the line in that order.

At Randwick last Saturday for the exacta dividend was less than double the quinella dividend in five out of the nine races. In Race 5 the Roheryn/Probabeel the quinella and the exacta each paid $48.00.  Go figure.

Apart from the pricing discrepancy, Quinellas and Exactas have the same problems as all multiple bets:

1. There are too many combinations in each race for punters to consistently win and the long odds of a combination getting over the line mean there are longer losing streaks for the punter who focuses mainly on exotic bets;
2. The TAB take a percentage of the pool and the bookies margin is multiplied because it applies to the price of two horses instead of 1.  So if the true odds of a quinella getting up of two horses priced $5 and $8 are 20.00, then the quinella dividend is 16.00 or 25% less than it should be instead of 10% on just the one horse,
3.  Taking a number of combinations is not such a great idea as you are betting against yourself and reducing the odds you are getting for your winning bet. 

The takeout is that the quniella is a much better bet than an exacta.

I was ecstatic when the Criterion/Red Cadeaux quinella in the Queen Elizabeth stakes a few years ago. It paid from memory $40 odd dollars and I had to spend $10 on 10 combinations so the odds were 4.00, not that exciting when the winner paid 5.50 and the second horse 4.90 for the place.

Look, I am not here to spoil anyone’s fun and I still bet on the quinella. It is really exciting when a  multiple  bet gets over the line.  However, if you are paid consistently  under the odds on your winning bets you will finish on the wrong side of the ledger long term.

Conversely, for the bookie who gets to lay quinella and exacta without having to worry about the pool the two bets represent a massive free kick (with possibly a 50 metre penalty thrown in) week in week out.  

Caulfield

Race 1 Persan (5) Exemplar (1) Double Your Tee (2) Mirimar (3) Skelm (6)  Tavirun (4)

Race 2 Riddle Me that (3) Express Pass (11) Windstorm (1) A Good Yarn (4) Legionnaire (12)  

Race 8 Game Keeper (14) Sircconi (8) Mirage Dancer (2) Dr Drill (4) & Exasperate (13)

Race 9 Glenfiddich (15) Regal Power (1) Savatiano (13) Streets of Avalon (5) & So Si Bon (4)  

Sydney

Race 5 Peltzer (5) Race 7 Bazooka (6) Race 8 Savacool (14) Race 9 Wandabaa (1)

Theme Bet

This week’s theme bet is places and people of Africa (including African-American) and The Caribbean.

Race 6 Garner (6) Race 8 Cape of Good Hope (1) Race 9 Harlem (2) & Race 10 Jamaican Hurry (13).

Find each of these horses in a Yankee or Parlay Formula 23 &4 bet and you’ll enjoy a dividend of $1,432,079 which is one of the higher dividends that Glamour Tips has ever seen for a theme bet.  Finding a way to spend it might be a problem in the current climate. but I am sure someone will find a way.  

Toby’s Titanic (Lay Bet)

Caulfield Race 2 Windstorm

Bella Nipotina won the Quezette Stakes last Saturday afternoon paying 20-1.  She continued a thing on Australian race- tracks which began in 1945 when a horse called Surefoot ridden by a boiler maker came third in the Great Eastern Steeple Chase at each way odds of 66-1. Colin Hayes was one of the most successful trainers of the twentieth century. He won almost all of the important races including Melbourne and Caulfield Cups, a Cox Plate a Golden slipper and a number of Training Premierships.

The remarkable thing, however, is not that the races that this stable win but the prices that their horses start. Dulcify won the Australian Cup in 1979 at 80-1. In 2017 Boom Time won the Caulfield Cup at 50-1, the third of David Hayes Caulfield Cup wins Fraar and Tawqueet both starting at odds of over 20-1. In between Eagle Falls and Scarlett Bisque won the Oakleigh Plate both at 20-1 and Alishan and Planet Ruler won the 1200 Derby Day Sprint at similar odds.  At Flemington, Jeune won the Melbourne Cup at 20-1 Seascay won back to back Cantala Stakes at 50-1 and 10-1 with Harlem recently winning two Australia Cups at 50-1 and 30-1. I could go on but I think I will stop with Glastonbury’s slightly controversial, win of the 1994 Metropolitan at 26-1 after coming last in the Colin Stephen’s Quality as favourite a couple of weeks before hand.

The message is not to underestimate this stable under any circumstances this Spring no matter what the odds. It doesn’t cost much to save on the long price Hayes runner. They are also particularly good at the early two year old races and I’d be surprised if one of their runners does n’t  win the Maribyrnong Plate this year.

Did I take my own advice last Saturday. Well yes. I backed Cape of Good Hope and we all know what happened there!

You have been warned.    

Moonee Valley  

Race 2 Tailleur (3) Parmie (6) Melodeon (5) Sword of Mercy (8) South Bank (3)

Race 3 Cloud Breaker (2) Montia (5) Jenni’s Rainbow (11) Riverina Storm (8) & Clean Machine (7)

Race 7 Banquo (6) Windstorm (7) Fight (15) Delaxation (3) & Epic Grey (4)

Race 8 Jungle Edge (1) Brooklyn Hustle (10) Humma Humma (8) Great Again (2) & Ashlor (3)

Theme Bet

Our theme bet this week is a tentative  encounter which could possibly end in tears Race 1 Coming Around (4) Race 3 Yes baby Yes (9)  Race 4 High Emocean (5)  and Race 5 Kiss and Cry (5) Race 6 Hard Landing (1). $9,728 awaits you if you can get these horses over the line in a Super Yankee or Parlay Formula 234 Bet for an outlay of just $13.30.  

Sydney

Race 4 Dane Giselle (1) Race 5 Funstar (3) Race 7 The Bostonian (2)  Race 8 Kinane (11) Race 9 Ice Bath (9)

Toby’s Titanic

(Lay of the Day) Race 2 Moonee Valley Jenni’s Rainbow (11)

The Favourite

The favourite has an important role to play in horse racing betting. A very patient and  thorough Englishman called Adrian Massey conducted a survey of 100,000 races in Great Britain. He found that of all  horse races (including jumps races) favourites won  35% , the second favourite won 20% and the third favourite won 14% or to put it another way the top three horses in the market won 69% of all races run.

The survey also showed that if you bet $1 on every favourite going around you would lose 8% of your turn-over which is better than most punters do on a yearly basis. The bookmakers’ business model is based around these statistics because they know that in roughly 30% of cases punters will lose and they can frame their book accordingly.

Does this apply in Australia?  Well yes. However, there are variables. Handicaps have a lower percentage of favourites than weight for age or set weight races. Races run for higher prize money have a poor strike rate for favourites. The rate can also vary from course to course.  Flemington is a graveyard for the public elect particularly races down the straight and on Final Day. 

Oddly, punters will get better value for favourites than for longer priced horses in the market.  This occurs for two reasons. Bookmakers sharpen their pencils and compete for the money bet on the horses most likely to win by increasing their prices. The second is due to a concept whereby punters over value long shots and undervalue favourites. A punter will grizzle and not bet on a near certainty priced at 5/4 only to see it romp in by several lengths. On the other hand, he or she will not question the price of a 20/1 shot which on form and statistics is probably worth about 50/1. This is known as favourite long shot bias.

Not backing a favourite or worse taking it on because it is too short is not a wonderful betting strategy.  Think of it as giving a present to the bookmaker that he was n’t counting on. He will love you for it.  

Caulfield

Race 4 Exasperate (4) Plein Ciel (2) Sound (1) Think we are due (won @ 10.00) (8) First Class Dreamer (9)

Race 5 Rulership (3) Lunar Fox (1) Larimer Street (2) Hydro Star (6) Branders Rule (7)

Race 8 Mystic Journey (8) Cape of Good Hope (4) Streets of Avalon (3) Kings will Dream (2) Arcadia Queen (9)

Race 9 Adelaide Ace (3) Showmanship (4) (won @2.00) Junipal (2) Mount Tabora (7) & Ruban Bleu (6)

Theme Bet  

Our theme bet this Saturday is over familiar and possibly unwelcome behaviour Race 3 Embrace Me (1) Race 5 3.60 The Cruiser (8) Race 6 Fresh (7) Race 9 So You Swing (16).The accrued prize for getting these horses over the line in a Yankee (Parlay Formula 23 &4 bet will pay $34,271 for $5.50 outlay.   

Randwick

Race 3 Varda (5) (won@2.80) Race 7 North Pacific  (2)(won @ 2.00)Race 8  Man of Peace (8) (won@4.60)

Toby’s Titanic

Race 5 Hydro Star (6)

He lost high lightning the diference between Sandown midweek form and Saturday form drifted in the market but gave layers a 30% profit)