Derby=John Allen

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Derby = John Allen

It would be brave punter who would take on Detonator Jack and Jockey John Allen tomorrow. Last year the Irish jockey won all four Derbies and he looks like doing the same this year with the AJC Derby winner Hitotsu under his belt.  We are giving the J Kah system a little rest for the next couple of weeks but don’t worry punters, she’ll be back as long as she promises never to ride Brooklyn Hustle ever again.

Morphettville

John Allen Special

Race 1 No way ever (3) Race 3 Miss Dunsford  (7)  Race 4 Exeter (5) Race 5 Meteorite (3)  Race 6 Thrill Kill  (2)  Race 8 Detonator Jack (6)  Race 9 Kasmi (5)

Best Bets

Each way Double (Parlay Formula 1 &2)  

Race 7 Umgawa (2) Race 8 Detonator Jack

Feature Race Standout Quinella and Duet

Race 8

Alegron (1) Jungle Magnate (3) Commander Harry (4) Harley Moven (5) Detonator Jack* (6)

*Standout

Flemington   

Best Bets

Race 1 Doull (6) Race 4 Adele Amour (10) Race 5 Coolth (12)   Race 6 Cardinal Gem (13)

Melbourne Mick’s Daily Double

Race 7 Lexus Andrew Ramsden Stakes

Warning (1) Luncies (2) Through Irish Eyes (8) Point Nepean (10) Splendiferous* (11)

Race 9 Santa Ana Lane Handicap

Dosh* (1) How Womantic (2) Whipcracker Way (11)  Easy Single (12) Winsum

Toby’s Lucky Long Shots

Flemington

Race 3 Bring in the Stars (11) Race 4 It’s a Kinda Magic (7)Race 8 Bold Star (12)

Morphettville Race 8 Son of Emperor (8)

Toby’s Titanic Lay of the Day

Race 7 Illation

 

Mares in Form or run from September

 

Mares in Form or run from September

A couple of years ago a horse called Sunlight was favourite for the Sangster Stakes a Group 1 race for mares run at Morphettville. The mare was a champion having won over just under 7 million dollars in Stakes money and several Group 1 victories.

On any analysis she was odds on but she actually started 4.80, about the same price September Run is quoted tomorrow. Sunlight ran the worst race of her illustrious career and was retired shortly afterwards.   The price was n’t value it was too good to be true

September Run, a last start Group 1 winner should be at a much lower quote as she is coming back in class from her William Reid Group 1 win. Alarm Bells are ringing.

However, last start winners only win one in five starts so even at 4.80  she is under the odds.

Morphettville

Jamie Kah Special @ Morphettville {Her Happy Place}

Race 1 Eagles Craig (9) Race 3 Barrabool (7)  Race 4 Designs (4)  Race 5 Marine One (1)  Race 6 Dragontea (2)  Race 7 Iron Clad (5) Race 8 Brooklyn Hustle (5)  Race 9 Sidearm (13)

Best Bets

Each way Double (Parlay Formula 1 &2)  

Race 6 Silent Sovereign (8) Race 8 Bella Nipotina (2)

Feature Race Standout Quinella and Duet

Race 8

September Run (1) Bella Nipotina (2)* Bella Vella (4)  Away Game (6)   Champagne Dreams (16)

*Standout

Caulfield  

Best Bets

Race 2 White Hibiscus (4) Race 3 Little Stevie (2) Race 4 Galenus (4) Race 6 Scissor Step (1)

Melbourne Mick’s Daily Double

Race 7 Take it to the Neds Level Handicap

So Si Bon (1) Imperial Lad (3)* Skyman (6) Uncle Byrn (8) & Wairere Falls (9)

Race 9 Alex Butcher Memorial Trophy

Mitford (5) Flash Ah (9)  One More Try (12) Don’t Doubt Rory (10) Bedford (14)

Toby’s Lucky Long Shots

Caulfield Race 3 The Stylist (9) Race 5 Ranting (8)  Race 7 So Si Bon  (1)

Morphettville Race 8 Champagne Dreams (16)

Toby’s Titanic Lay of the Day

Race 6 Caulfield Uncle Byrn (8)

 

 

Exacta Quinella and Duets-Shall we Dance?

Exacta Quinella and Duets-Shall we Dance?

Every week in Hong Kong the mecca of gambling on horse races, a lazy $5 million dollars goes into the quinella pool with a further $4 million going into the duet pool a betting medium which is  despised in Australia.

Are we missing out on something?

Melbourne Mick likes the standout quinella taking one horse to come first or second with a further 4 horses selected to fill the other spot. This gives you 4 combinations for $4.00 and is a much better option then the boxed quinella of 5 horses costing $10.

Why? It’s cheaper and you are not wasting your money on the longer priced combinations which are unlikely to get up. In most cases the top three in the betting market come first and second and the dividend won’t be enough to cover the bet.

The same applies to the Duet with the added bonus of colleting a second dividend if two of the combinations get up.

Don’t bet on the exacta. It is a high risk bet which often pays under the odds

Morphettville  

Jamie Kah Special @ Morphettville {Her Happy Place}

Race 2 My Girl Love (10) Race 3 Meteorite (5) Race 4 Perceptive (8)  Race 5 Lalaguna (8) Race 6 Son of Emperor (5) Race 7 My Whisper (6) Race 8 Morvada (3) Race 9 My Boy Birmingham (7)

Best Bets 

Race 5 Eye of the Eagle (2) Race 7 Bons a Pearla (4)

Each way Double (Parlay Formula 1 &2)

Sandown

Best Bets

Race 2 Witchachar Star (9) Ocean Miss (3) Race 5 Literary Magnate (1) Race 8 Excelida (9)

Melbourne Mick’s Daily Double

Race 7 Tile Importer Handicap

Belle Savoir (2) Kaliuwaa Falls (5) Sonora (6)  Carlisle (7) Flash Feeling (9)*

Race 9 Thoroughbred Club Handicap

Sir Davey (1) Kinane (4) Lyrical Lad (5) Baswara (8)* Eagles Craig (11)

Toby’s Lucky Long Shots

Sandown Race 1 Cosmic Aura (2) Race 3 Naval Envoy (8) Race 8 Ballet Master (11)

Morphettville Race 7 Barb Raider (2)

Toby’s Titanic Lay of the Day

No standout lay on a difficult day at Sandown. We would be taking on the first two favourites in each race to lose $30 each.

Bet with Mates