The Quinella Exacta Dilemma
Punters like exotic betting because they offer big returns for small outlays.
The Verry Elegant/Star of the Seas quinella (1st & 2nd in any order) in the Winx Stakes paid $119 for just one dollar. The same two horses in the exacta (1st and 2nd in correct order) paid $192.
In the Winx Stakes, there were 120 combinations for a quinella bet and 240 for an exacta in a field of 16. The cost of a quinella is half the cost of a two-box exacta. So you would expect that the exacta dividend would be double the quinella dividend.
Oddly, it doesn’t for two reasons. The first is that the calculation of the odds is different for each bet type. Secondly, the size of the pool can distort the amount of the dividend particularly if one of the favourites win. You are betting on the dividend as well as the outcome of the horse race.
In the Winx Stakes a punter who spent two dollars on a quinella would have got $238 or for the same money he could have purchased a boxed exacta (effectively the same bet) and got $192 {or 20% less } when Verry Elegant and Star of the Seas got over the line in that order.
At Randwick last Saturday for the exacta dividend was less than double the quinella dividend in five out of the nine races. In Race 5 the Roheryn/Probabeel the quinella and the exacta each paid $48.00. Go figure.
Apart from the pricing discrepancy, Quinellas and Exactas have the same problems as all multiple bets:
- There are too many combinations in each race for punters to consistently win and the long odds of a combination getting over the line mean there are longer losing streaks for the punter who focuses mainly on exotic bets;
- The TAB take a percentage of the pool and the bookies margin is multiplied because it applies to the price of two horses instead of 1. So if the true odds of a quinella getting up of two horses priced $5 and $8 are 20.00, then the quinella dividend is 16.00 or 25% less than it should be instead of 10% on just the one horse,
- Taking a number of combinations is not such a great idea as you are betting against yourself and reducing the odds you are getting for your winning bet.
The takeout is that the quniella is a much better bet than an exacta.
I was ecstatic when the Criterion/Red Cadeaux quinella in the Queen Elizabeth stakes a few years ago. It paid from memory $40 odd dollars and I had to spend $10 on 10 combinations so the odds were 4.00, not that exciting when the winner paid 5.50 and the second horse 4.90 for the place.
Look, I am not here to spoil anyone’s fun and I still bet on the quinella. It is really exciting when a multiple bet gets over the line. However, if you are paid consistently under the odds on your winning bets you will finish on the wrong side of the ledger long term.
Conversely, for the bookie who gets to lay quinella and exacta without having to worry about the pool the two bets represent a massive free kick (with possibly a 50 metre penalty thrown in) week in week out.
Caulfield
Race 1 Persan (5) Exemplar (1) Double Your Tee (2) Mirimar (3) Skelm (6) Tavirun (4)
Race 2 Riddle Me that (3) Express Pass (11) Windstorm (1) A Good Yarn (4) Legionnaire (12)
Race 8 Game Keeper (14) Sircconi (8) Mirage Dancer (2) Dr Drill (4) & Exasperate (13)
Race 9 Glenfiddich (15) Regal Power (1) Savatiano (13) Streets of Avalon (5) & So Si Bon (4)
Sydney
Race 5 Peltzer (5) Race 7 Bazooka (6) Race 8 Savacool (14) Race 9 Wandabaa (1)
Theme Bet
This week’s theme bet is places and people of Africa (including African-American) and The Caribbean.
Race 6 Garner (6) Race 8 Cape of Good Hope (1) Race 9 Harlem (2) & Race 10 Jamaican Hurry (13).
Find each of these horses in a Yankee or Parlay Formula 23 &4 bet and you’ll enjoy a dividend of $1,432,079 which is one of the higher dividends that Glamour Tips has ever seen for a theme bet. Finding a way to spend it might be a problem in the current climate. but I am sure someone will find a way.
Toby’s Titanic (Lay Bet)
Caulfield Race 2 Windstorm
