Gambling in the Corona Virus era-a data driven approach?
The current pandemic has been a bonanza for bookmakers and online gambling companies.
This is due in part to the many multiple bet options which offer poor value for money. They make horse racing one of the more expensive options for some punters who tend to focus on form and other data rather than the probability of the bet getting over the line.
Take punter A for example. He was out of the quaddie (1 in 14,560 combinations) early when Wilmot Pass got rolled, a loss of $150 for a potential 24% share. He added to this and other when he went for a key box trifecta (1 in 2184 combinations) in the last on Hypersonic ridden by Damien Oliver and 6 other horses ten times for $200. Further losses at Ascot and Melton led to a loss on the day of $400.00.
This amounted to 26% of his fortnightly Job keeper payment funded by a drawdown on his Visa card @19.2% percent and a 2% cash advance fee.
On the other hand, Punter B had a good day focusing primarily on win betting (saving where appropriate) albeit with a small exposure to the daily double when his five picks were beaten by the unfancied Melodean, after a last start 7th at Cranbourne but a good record at Moonee Valley. His strategy is to establish a bank at the beginning of the season wager 5% of that on selected races and by the time Mahamedeis (1 of 10 runners) won the seventh race he was $275 in front, having followed Toby’s selections for a win. Not a bad start.
The dilemma for punters? The quaddie paid $44,000 but it would n’t have paid this had Wilmot Pass won the first leg.
Flemington
Race 1 South Pacific (4) Exemplar (4) Won @ 7.00 Double Your Tee (3) & Blandford Lad (8)
Race 2 Yes Baby Yes (6) Diesel ‘n’ Dust (1) Galactic Fury (2) The Pres (5) & Shamzou (7)
Race 4 Navisha (5) Heavenly Emperor (4) Five Kingdom (8) Winning Partner (7) & Peso (1)
Race 5 Laburnam (6) Mantastic (2) Coming Around (9) (won@3.00)
Theme Bet
Our Theme Bet this weekend is war and espionage Race 1 South Pacific (4) Race 2 Fatigues (3) won @ 4.80 Race 5 Man from Uncle (8)
Get these over the line in a Super Yankee or Parlay Formula 2345 and gasp in astonishment as you pick up a dividend of $131,953 for a $13 bet.
Sydney
Race 1 Montefillia (9) won @ 5.00 Race 5 Rezealient Melody Bell (4) Race 9 Valdostana (9)
Toby’s Titanic (lay of the day)
Flemington Race 4 Tavidance (10)
Ouch! he won so we had to cough up $30.00
